June 28, 2022

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You Cannot Reason With A Tiger When Your Head Is In Its Mouth

Pix Source : The Independent UK

The quote above is by Winston Churchill, Britain's controversial but brilliant Prime Minister in the darkest period of his country during WW2. This was especially important as though Churchill had very questionable qualities as a person and highly unpopular, his steadfast and unbending spirit helped his countrymen win the war alongside the Alliance.

What has this got to do with our country's political turmoil? In times of great crisis like the Covid-19 pandemic, a country requires strong leaders who are confident, courageous and wise to safeguard the welfare of the people. Similarly, when the stock market is going through a massive selloff, only the most calm, collected and wise investor can make full use of the opportunity.

It is August now, for many months, I have written countless commentaries and articles warning about "overly optimistic" forecast by certain research houses on our country's economy recovery. I also highlighted that the GDP growth forecast of 7% for our country is perplexing. It was not because I am being contrarian but because underestimating the seriousness of the crisis is reckless.

In addition, when you have a bloated Cabinet made up of incompetent leaders who are not working cohesively together with the same mindset, merely tied together due to political interests, these bunch of leaders will not put the people's interests first. I forecasted that the stock market would go through a 10% correction from the peak in 2020 to 1515. As of last Friday, the index is hovering at 1505. Come this week, it would be the 4th time our country has changed regime in 4 years. Under such circumstances, how can anyone be optimistic with the economic performance of our country, what more the stock market? As we are now on the cusp of another change in the Government, it is my ardent hope that this would be the last time before a full term election.


"Also, if the new ruling Government can be one which puts the people's interests first, then I am certain this would be the bottom for our economy & also the stock market.  

The new ruling Government if able to perform well, it will likely do well in the next Election too. So, if this latest political turmoil caused a selloff in the coming days, it may provide a window for collection of good companies for the long term provided the new Government lives up to expectations.

Winston Churchill said the above quote when he refused to negotiate with Nazi. He said gave the said advice to Russia's leaders. In the current political context, negotiating from a position of weakness usually ends in futility. The only way the new Government can be one that is satisfactory to all political forces would be if the negotiation is led by one coming from position of power, and those political forces which have the upper hand is willing to be magnanimous to those who are weaker.

I look forward to a positive resolution and hopefully it is one where the people's mandate & interests would be respected.


Author of "Once Upon A Time In Bursa", please click MPHBookstore / Popular Bookstore / Shopee

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This  information should not and cannot be construed as or relied on and (for  all intents and purposes) does not constitute financial, investment or  any other form of advice. Any investment involves the taking of  substantial risks, including (but not limited to) complete loss of  capital. Every investor has different strategies, risk tolerances and  time frames. You are advised to perform your own independent checks,  research or study; and you should contact a licensed professional before  making any investment decisions.

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