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Saturday, 4 April 2020

(Tradeview 2020) The Interlude





Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


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http://www.tradeview.my/

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I call this The Interlude. It means a temporary intervention in the middle of an event. Like when you are watching a theatre show or broadway play, during the middle (intermission). Why? 






As most market followers would have know by now that the oil market had a sudden surge of close to 40% in 2 days due to Trump’s tweet and the pending OPEC+ meeting to potentially cut supply of oil production. I need not explain more as the Crude and Brent Oil chart shows exactly what is happening in the global oil market. Trump is also trying to stabilise the oil market at the US front by having meetings with top oil executives over the weekend. Globally, he claimed to have spoken to Russia’s Putin and Saudi’s Prince MBS.

This has led to the steadying of KLCI index as a whole due to the relief rally which rotated towards the oil and gas sector. Stocks like Serba Dinamik, Uzma, Dayang, Naim, Penergy, Hibiscus, Carimin amongst the many have rebounded strongly in 2 days in tandem with the oil price relief. Whilst we highly think this is premature, but the fact is oil price has plunge equally deeply.




Whilst China’s Covid-19 situation seems to be in control, other parts of the world are heading towards and implosion or peak. This includes US, Europe and closer to home, WHO has said Malaysia would be reaching its peak in middle of April. 


Now there are 2 prongs to analyse these news and market happenings above :

1. The jobs / unemployment rate. Non-Farm Payroll US release was really bad at 700k jobs lost, whilst unemployment has risen to 4.4%. And it will only get worst with the next month due to the situation in US. 

2. Oil market continued the rally today and surge continues after OPEC+ agreed to meet to discuss the oil situation. However nothing conclusive has been reached and it is believe, Trump will meet US oil producers to discuss their role to play in stabilising the market (including taking their share of production cut). If US, Canada, Brazil agrees on top of OPEC+ only then it will be possible for 10 million barrels cut. 

For both points, unemployment data indicates recession and is clear precursor of global recession. Do not forget, the share market usually moves 6 months ahead of actual economic situation. For oil, if producers of oil in OPEC+ and beyond do cut, it will benefit Malaysia directly as we are oil nation and will help with the government coffers. This will then lead to another round of short rally before the market returns to the normalcy of the true scenario of a recession. 

In short, we believe that the true and only way for the economy to get out of the doldrums is if the vaccine for Covid-19 is ready. Otherwise it will be a long protracted battle of downward bear pressure for the market and we forecast this will last for at least the next 6-12 months and may revisit previous KLCI low of 1210.

Remember, in our earlier articles 19th March 2020 and again 24th March 2020 when we openly put in black and white for our readers to see our position where we said it is time to collect and enter (refer here : http://www.tradeview.my/2020/03/tradeview-2020-recession-is-finally.html
http://www.tradeview.my/2020/03/tradeview-2020-cash-is-king-time-to.html) , I believe many have already made some gains. Our advice this moment now, except for long term dividend yielding growth stocks to hold and ride it out, we think the others that had rebounded on relief, those in position should consider to take profit.

This is why we call it The Interlude. We believe once this very short oil relief rally is over, the forces of economics, actual business fundamentals (where businesses are not opened due to lockdown, unemployment on the rise, loss of revenue for govt in taxes and larger deficit due to the stimulus) kicks in, there will be another round of sell down. This is our view and we are advocating caution for your hard earned money / savings. 




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Food for thought: 





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