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Wednesday, 30 November 2016

(Tradeview 2016) Value Pick No. 16 : (YeeLee Corporation Bhd.) Final Pick of 2016

Dear fellow readers, 

Thank you for all your support for 2016. This is my final pick for 2016 before moving on to year 2017. I believe 2016 has been a hard year for many and let's see if this final pick can help end the year with a bang.

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101 

Blog : http://tradeview101.blogspot.my/

or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber [email protected]

Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/
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Value Pick No. 16: YeeLee Corporation Bhd (Intial TP RM 2.68) 

YeeLee released their recent QR and the share price barely moved despite an improvement of 28% YoY and 7% QoQ. While the revenue growth QoQ was marginal, YoY it recorded a strong showing growing from RM 197 Million to RM 247 Million. For the immediate preceding quarter, the profit grew from 5.45 EPS to 5.85 EPS. NTA increased to RM 2.97. 

If you look at the revenue growth for the past 4  quarters, you can see the significant increase  and most importantly, it has reached a new level from the earlier year.  Currently, each quarter, YeeLee is delivering at least RM 200+ Million per quarter compared to 1 year ago in the RM 150+ Million per quarter level. On top of that, the profit margin has improved from 4% to 4.3%.  
This is amazing considering that a year of improvement has such significant change yet when you look at the share price movement in the past 52 weeks, you will notice the share price barely reflect the improvement. Last year it was trading around RM 2, it went to a high of RM 2.45 before retracing. Currently, it is trading at only RM 2.30. This indicates how undervalue YeeLee is.  


Additionally, for 3 Quarter of 2016, the total revenue of Yee Lee is around RM 765 Million compare to 2015 full year 4 quarters at RM 799 Million. Net profit for 3 quarters also surpassed the full 4 quarters of 2015 at RM 32.5 million vs RM 31.9 million. It is very obvious that YeeLee will bring the company's revenue and profit to a record high for 2016. In the past, YeeLee declares minimal dividend as most funds are use to expand the business which is good. However, when the company's performance improves, the dividend increases. Case in point, YeeLee increased the dividend from 3 sens in FY 2014 to 3.5 sens FY 2015. I believe, it is likely for FY 2016 that dividend will increase again. In short, this is a record year for YeeLee. 


When we read into details of YeeLee, it is obvious that the distributorship of RedBull, Ribena, Lucozade and also the impending plantation business turnaround is what brought Yee Lee profitability to a next level. Manufacturing still takes the leading position in terms of contribution  which is in line with the increase in CPO price but the trading business is catching up with strong increase in volume. Plantation narrowed the losses via the selling of timber, palm oil is still loss making due to replanting exercise and tea plantation is still on track for improvement.  




Considering the tough market, it is very comforting to see the management confident with the future prospect. Strong management in difficult business times is another plus point.



The increasing net cash position of Yee Lee and its NTA is clearly a sign of stability in uncertain times. However, I would appreciate if YeeLee management may consider rewarding long term shareholders. 



I believe YeeLee is currently undervalued at 10x trailing PE for a solid consumer stock. Forward looking, assuming the management is able to maintain their profit margin and revenue whilst improving their plantation business, the company should be able to deliver a full year estimated EPS of RM2.40. I am not looking for further growth but maintain last quarter performance of 2015 suffice. Applying a multiple of 12x, the fair value would be RM 2.88. This is excluding their potential future growth and dividend growth. Other consumer peers like Cocoaland and, Apollo are all trading at multiples of 12x and 19x respectively.  These companies' revenue and profit trend are also decreasing as compared to YeeLee. I am confident YeeLee can maintain its growth trajectory as per the past years. 

At time of writing, the share price is trading at RM2.32, it is my take to collect YeeLee and hold until the market realises it true value. As the market is lethargic, I will be conservative to apply a multiple of 11x and arrive at an initial TP of RM2.68. 

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Food for thought: 

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Tuesday, 29 November 2016

(Tradeview 2016) - Monthly Shareholdings Report Card (As of End October)


(Tradeview 2016) - Monthly Shareholdings Report Card (As of End October)

Author: tradeview   |   Publish date: Wed, 26 Oct 2016, 02:23 PM




Dear fellow traders / investors,

I have made several calls from end 2015 and start of 2016. This is the updated results as of end October. 

The links are as below

Blog : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/



This is just a simple periodical report to keep track of the progress of my picks for readers. My updates is for the purpose of transparency and accountability to the calls I have made. Feel free to cross check my comments / article posting date as reference for the calls.
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*The picks from when it was call until 29 Nov 2016 : (Gains exclude div) 

1. Cycle Carriage Bintang - Called on 29th Oct RM 3.30 vs Present RM 2.90  (-13% Loss)

2. Apollo - Called on 30th Oct RM 4.91 vs Present RM 5.86 (19.3% Gain) 

3. Gadang - Called on 30th Oct RM 1.63 vs Present RM 0.955 (Equivalent to RM 2.56 after share split and bonus) (57% Gain)

4. Magni Tech - Called on 22nd Dec Oct RM 4.20 vs Present RM4.19 (0.5% Loss)

5. UPA - Called on 4th Nov RM 1.70 vs Present RM 2.09 (23% Gain)

6. FFHB - Called on 29th Dec RM 0.81 vs Present RM 0.71 (-13% Loss)

7. Perstima - Called on 29th Dec RM 5.35 vs Present RM 6.75 (26% Gain)

8. Teoseng- Called on 29th Jan RM 1.29 vs Present RM 0.99 (-24% Loss) 

9. Analabs- Called on 26th Feb RM 2.06 vs Present RM 2.26 (9.7% Gain)

10. SCC - Called on 17th May RM 2.09 vs Present RM 1.75 (-16.4% Loss)

11. Digi - Called on 10th May RM 4.4 vs Present RM 4.97 (12.9% Gain)

12. Litrak - Called on 3rd June RM 5.4 vs Present RM 5.88 (8.88% Gain)

13. BJToto - Called on 5th May RM 3.00 vs Present RM 3.10 (3.33% Gain)

14. Pensonic - Called on 31st July RM 0.685 vs Present RM 0.74 (-1.5% Loss)

15. Visdynamics - Called on 25th September RM 0.225 vs Present RM 0.24 ( 6.7% Gain)


As of now, it is 9/15 winners against losers.Should you are keen to follow my trades, there are 3 ways to follow me.I usually share my calls with the 1. private exclusive subscribers first 2. Telegram second 3. Blog / Forum followers third. 

If you are keen to have the earliest possible call picks or FA/TA coaching, feel free to contact me at [email protected] to sign up. Thanks.

Regards,

Tradeview 

**Some counters I may have spotted at lower entry price but I displayed the call price based on my first mention in public forums. Also, of the 15 counters above, some counters I have taken profit, some are still holding, some I have cut loss. My subscribers would know. 

Thursday, 10 November 2016

(Tradeview 2016) - I am New, How Can I Make Money from Share Market?

Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble view, feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this.

To join my telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101 or
visit my blog at [email protected] or
email me at [email protected] to be private subscriber. 
_____________________________________________________________________________

Recently, an interested reader of my past articles emailed me with the question titled above. He said he want to make 20% per annum and ask me can I guarantee him, if not he won't join my private group. I did not say too much to him but gave a few simple words of advice. 


I shall illustrate just 5 points for other readers out there who are new to equities investing and may have the same question in mind or same investment goal. 

1. No one can guarantee you anything

Image result for bernie madoff



The reason why I post the above picture is because of the man. Bernie Madoff is probably the most powerful man on Wall Street in his heydays and will always be remembered as the most notorious Ponzi Scheme mastermind of the modern century. Bernie is extremely powerful by virtue of his position, reputation and connection in wall street. He was one time executive chairman of NASDAQ and notable celebrities like Steven Spielberg, Russian Mafia and many others are among his top clientele. His firm is one of the top market makers and he was senteneced to 150 years imprisonment. Estimated loss caused by Bernie's Ponzi scheme is around $65 Billion. Actual losses is around $18 Billion. The reason I am sharing about him is because I hope that all new investors will understand that, NO ONE can ever guarantee investment returns. If ANYONE tells you that they can guarantee you a certain % of return, please note the red flag and run away. Investing should be a voluntary decision made with a clear mind with regards to the risk and reward behind the decision. If one cannot suffer losses, one should not invest and just placed the money in FD / a MILO tin.


2. Start with the basics (FA)

What is FA? Why do I need basics to invest? My friend told me this counter can enter, getting project soon. If the above is the attitude one adopts in investing, I can 100% say the person will make losses in the market sooner than later. It goes without saying in whatever we do, we must focus on the basics. Investing 101 is all about fundamentals and hence understanding how to analyse counters from a basic standpoint is key to sustenance in the market. Adopt few simple metrics such as Price Earnings Ratio (PER), Net Tangible Assets(NTA), Dividend Yield (DY), Return on Equity (ROE) etc. To understand these basic concepts, there are several good authors out here that shares it. If not, there is always investopedia. Like an example of a FA stock I look to acquire : YSPSAH

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It meets my metric at current price of RM2.15

PER : 10x
NTA : RM1.90
ROE: 10
DY : 3.7%

And other qualitative and quantitiave factors which I have researched to arrive at the conclusion to enter. Of course there is more beyond simple metrics like these, but this is just a basic for you to start off and do your own personal stock screening.

3. Be patient and ready sit out

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This year is an unprecedented year. All the most unlikeliest events occur. It is the year where rationale and logic failed to stay its course. If one were to sit through the year of 2016, the volatility and turmoil is beyond what your usual chart and graphs can tell you. Many seasoned investors and traders lost money. My advice to new investors is to stay out and be patient once you decide to be in the market. The market is always there. However, your money is not. You can lose opportunity to make money only to come across another. But without money, you cant take advantage of opportunity that arises. Never be afraid to sit out when you are not sure what is going on. Never be afraid to wait. If you are not able to do both of these, you are not prepared to enter the market.

4. Be cautious and ruthless

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My only advise to all my readers, be ruthless when cutting loss and taking profit. Be cautious when riding profit. On a long term and stable environment, riding profit long is the right thing to do. However, in current market, any profit is good. Once it hits your own personal TP, avoid being greedy. If you are not sure what to do, sell half hold half. Anything else is a bonus.


5. Read widely to understand Macro of the World

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The world is big. Today it is around 7 billion in population. Information travels quick due to the proliferation of technology and advancement in science. Civilisation across the globe improves. As we get interconnected, every bit of information may have repercussion across the world. The only way one can be able to succeed in the market is to read widely and consistently update oneself. The quest for learning should not end just because you earn your 1st million. The only way to stay on top of your game is to continuously pursue the information and understand how macro / micro affects your stock picks be it the company itself or the sector as a whole. Ex: The market was pricing in a Clinton win, as a result of her policies, pharma companies fell significantly. Similarly, the moment Trump, there was a selloff in Mexican Peso due to his hard stance against Latino immigrants and Mexico. These actions has impact across the world as well towards Asia, emerging markets and all. If one is blindly investing in the market without a wordly view, there is no way one will go far. 

I believe with 5 of this simple reminder, new investors may find themselves in a better off position to invest. As long as one is discipline, I am sure the market will give opportunities to you. 

To join my telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101

Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : [email protected] 
Image result for cutting loss
Blog : http://tradeview101.blogspot.my/

Food for thought: 


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