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Tuesday, 26 December 2017

(Tradeview 2017) - 3 Year Market View Update Version 2

As most of you know I have written an earlier piece on this topic back in 2016, the link attached here.

http://www.tradeview.my/2016/03/3-years-view-to-concerned-rotational.html

Summary of my 2016's 3 year view as below : 


My view is this:

1. If you are looking to contra, my advise please stay sidelines.
2. If you can hold 3-6 months, for now it is still export stocks.
3. If you can hold more than 1 year, you can consider O+G, logistics 
4. If you can hold more than 2 years, you can consider textile and apparels,  manufacturing.
5. If you can hold more than 3 years, you should buy property stocks, commodities  
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Looking at the time stamp, it is very obvious as one of the earliest writers in 2016 to call a recovery of export stocks and O&G. We called it when it was only March 2016, when these few sectors were at its worst.

1. Most export counters plunge like Liihen plunge to RM1.65 and Pohuat plunge to around RM1.35,

2. Oil Price was at USD 36.79 per barrel for crude oil,

Fast forward to last week of 2017 : 

1. Liihen rebounded from RM1.65 to now RM3.63 (Year high RM4.30) and Pohuat  rebounded from RM1.35 to now RM1.80 (Year high of RM2.06)  

2. Oil Price is at USD 65 per barrel for crude oil (Petronm, Serba Dinamik, Hengyuan among those that rebounded fiercely)

Our stance is to advise all against looking short term. Focus on the long term view and ignore short term volatility and noises. Similarly, 2017 was a tough year. We believe that 2018 will be slightly better. The optimistic side of us would like to think so at least. For those who like to cherry pick at the bottom, there are certain sectors to consider as well at current climate. 

We will follow up with another article soon to review our Top 5 Investment Sector Calls for 2017 to reflect how our view has materialised over the course of the year. This way we can look forward to 2018 with more clarity. 

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Food for thought: 


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