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Sunday, 21 May 2017

(Tradeview 2017) Value Pick No. 9 : Peterlabs Holdings Bhd. (0171)

Image result for peterlabs
Dear fellow readers, 

This is my No. 9 Value Pick for 2017. 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/

or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com
_____________________________________________________________________________

Value Pick No. 9: Peterlabs Holdings Bhd. (Initial Valuation RM 0.40) 

While we are familiar with many stocks in the KLCI, however, there are times some stocks will just slip our radar. We manage to catch hold of this only because one of our subscriber picked this up and asked us about it. 

Once again, we will give an upfront warning, as this is a small cap stock, this stock has higher risk compared to our other value picks. So for those who have low risk tolerance, you can skip this.  Peterlabs is in the business of manufacturing varieties of animal health products, animal nutritional feed additive and veterinary pharmaceutical to serve the livestock industry. It has its own R&D facilities and team which develop award winning products in this sector. 

We like Peterlabs for its track record of over 30 years and market leading position on supplying animal nutrition and health products to the poultry farms locally and abroad such as Pakistan and Taiwan. Due to its niche sector, the barriers of entry is higher as it requires technical expertise and experienced veterinarians. 

For the past 5 years, Peterlabs has consistently delivered continuous growth in revenue and positive bottomline. Looking at the revenue trend, the trajectory has been amazing with growth of more than 10%+ per annum. However, despite the growth in revenue, it did not translate to the bottomline due to the narrowing profit margin every year. The latest  financial year, Peterlabs delivered RM83 million in revenue but only RM3.3 million in net profit which is lesser than even 5 years ago. As you are reading, you must be wondering why would we call Peterlabs as our value pick then? This is because the key is in the details, not what meets the eyes. 



Looking at the profit trend, one would be depressed. Because no matter how strong the revenue grew, the profit could not follow in tandem. However, this is in part due to capacity as well as FOREX. The company has been consistently expanding their plant and facilities to manufacture more, incurring higher expense as well penetrating new regions through marketing activities. While it was time for them to reap some rewards, the weaker MYR affected their bottomline as their raw materials required import. The company faced eroding margin, but at least it is still a decent 4%. We believe with the MYR finding a bottom and the new plant coming on soon, the company should be able to improve its profit margin for this coming financial year. 



Nonetheless, this respectable management continue to declare dividend to reward shareholders through the ups and downs. No matter how bad things are, they will still declare dividend. This is a rare feat among listed companies these days where many has no respect for the company's dividend policy. The latest dividend declared was 0.7 sens which is equivalent to a Dividend Yield of 2.5%. For a penny stock that is still growing, this is very generous of the company. Some bigger caps stock cant even declare 2.5% dividend.




We like Peterlabs for many reason. Firstly, it has a management which is professional and competent. Although they faced many challenges including higher operating cost, FOREX exposure, they still manage to maintain profitability throughout the years. Secondly, it is in a sector with high barriers of entry and shows actual revenue growth. So long they can rationalise their operational cost, they should be able to improve their bottomline. Thirdly, the company is expanding with a new factory and looking to penetrate new markets. Hence, we believe the future prospect is intact. We are cautiously optimistic for it to improve its profitability in the coming QR. The 2017 prospects by Peterlabs looks promising as well. Given the management confidence of being able to deliver a positive performance to FY 2017, I think it is worthwhile to consider investing in the company for the long term basis. If Peterlabs successfully pulls it off, there may be a re-rating to the stock. 




Another point to note is a substantial shareholder recently bought back a huge position. http://www.fatfish.co/





With the latest QR, it is now consolidating at near the 52 week high. If Peterlabs can maintain their growth, there is no reason it cannot challenge it's 52 week high. Currently at 28.5 sens, it is trading at a multiple of 17.7x. It's NTA stands at 19 sens with ROE of 8.53% for the past year. We believe in the mid to long term growth trajectory of Peterlabs and estimate the coming full year result with EPS between 1.8 to 2.2 sens. Applying a multiple of 20x (factor in the net cash position and the 2.5% DY), there is a possibility that it can move towards 40 sens. For now, this will be the initial TP pending observations of coming quarter results. 

*Please note this is a penny stock with erratic earnings. Hence the risk is higher. For those who do not have such appetite, feel free to skip.
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Food for thought: 
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Sunday, 7 May 2017

(Tradeview 2017) Value Pick No. 8 : Red Sena Bhd. (5270)


Dear fellow readers,  

This is my No. 8 Value Pick for 2017. 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :



Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/


or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com

______________________________________________________________________

Value Pick No. 8: Red Sena Berhad (Initial Valuation RM 0.50 - RM0.55 sens) 

This is the first time we called for a SPAC related counter. SPAC stands for special purpose acquisition company. RedSena primarily is in the sector of F&B. The reason we are interested in RedSena is due to the arbitrage opportunity play. 

This is a rather safe investment. The risk to reward ratio is there with limited downside. For those feeling jittery about the market conditions, we think it is a good idea to look at Red Sena. Based on our calculations, investors stand to earn ~6.4% return p.a., assuming an entry price of 45sen.

Date
Share Price /
Fair Value
Total Return
Annualized Return
Apr-17
0.450
Dec-17
0.488
8.4%
9.7%
Dec-18
0.503
11.7%
6.4%


Do recall, the IPO price for Red Sena was 50sen and 92% of the IPO proceeds (i.e. 46sen) was set aside into a trust account to acquire a suitable F&B business over a 3 year period (Dec 2015 - Dec 2018). In the event that management fails to identify any potential target within this timeline, the money in the trust account, including interests earned, will be distributed back to investors.

On the flip, if Red Sena develops a liking for an F&B business and propose for an acquisition, investors can still get back their money by voting ‘NO’ during the EGM. To note, the quicker that this event occurs, the annualized return to investors is higher as well. On a per share basis, we estimate that the cash amount is 48sen and 50sen at Dec-2017 and Dec-2018 respectively.

We think this is a relatively safe investment strategy to adopt, especially for yield seeking/risk adverse investors. That said, if the company identified by Red Sena provides an entry into an exciting/high growth F&B business, we believe further share price upside is possible.

Overall, we advise investors not to jump into the bandwagon by simply buying Red Sena at the market offer price as it would lower your total return - every 0.5 sens could potentially lower your total return by 1%. Hence, one should patiently look to accumulate this stock.

From the management, side the company consists of a team of F&B professionals with substantial experience in their respective fields. From how we look at it, the team running the company is very professional. For SPAC, because it is in effect a shell company, the management team is crucial as they are the one who will determine the direction of the acquisition and path of the company. Having a strong management, will set it on strong footing compared to other SPACs.






Based on the latest news flow, Red Sena is looking to acquire the business in Vietnam and currently have made a list of 50 potentials. The management is looking to close the deal by early 2018.  You can refer to the relevant news here:

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/15/red-sena-sets-its-sights-on-vietnam/

*Please note this is a SPAC stock. For those who do not have such appetite, feel free to skip.
______________________________________________________________________


Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/


or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 

Sunday, 30 April 2017

(Tradeview 2017) - Monthly Report Card (As at 30th April)

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Dear fellow traders / investors,

As in the past years, I will be continuing the practice of recording my calls for the public. The report will show the monthly record for year 2017. The purpose is for transparency and accountability. This is the updated results as of end March. 

For those keen to be a subscriber, there are several links below





This is just a simple periodical report to keep track of the progress of my picks for readers. Feel free to cross check my public comments / article posting date as reference for the calls. Some are calls, some are articles on value picks but all are documented.
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*The picks from when it was call until 30th April 2017 : (Gains exclude div) 

1. Poh Huat - Called on 23 December @ RM 1.73 vs Present RM 1.83 (5.8% Gain) 

2. Allianz - Called on 7th Jan @ RM 10.18 vs Present RM 11.48 (12.7% Gain) 

3. EG Industries - Called on @ 9th Jan RM 0.865 vs Present RM 0.855 (-0.02% Loss) 

4. CCK Consolidated - Called on @ 23rd January RM 0.645 vs Present RM 0.715 (10.8% Gain) 

5. Magnum - Called on @ 23rd January RM 2.10 vs Present RM 2.10 (0% Gain) 

6. Paramount Corporation Bhd - Called on @ 1st March RM 1.65 vs Present RM 1.82 (10.3% Gain) 

7. Scope Industries Bhd - Called on @ 3rd March RM 0.155 vs Present RM 0.245 (58% Gain) 

8. Kronologi Asia Bhd - Called on @ 15th April RM 0.35 vs Present RM 0.48 (37% Gain) 

Our Average Portfolio Gain Year-To-Date (Based on equal shareholding & excluding dividend gain) : 16.83% Gain beating the KLCI Index Return of 7.69%  

*** In fairness, I excluded Magni and Yee Lee as both were 2016 Value Picks & MFCB and Jaks as called Nov / Dec 2016

As of now, it is 6/8 winners against losers. Should you are keen to follow my trades, there are 4 ways to follow Tradeview Group. I usually share my calls with :

1. Private Exclusive Subscribers first
2. Website / Blog / Facebook second
3. Telegram Public Channel third
4. Forum last 

If you are keen to have the earliest possible call picks or FA/TA coaching or value investing guidance or to be private exclusive subscriber, feel free to contact me at tradeview101@gmail.com to sign up. Thanks. 

Regards, 

Tradeview 

**Some counters I may have spotted at lower entry price but I displayed the call price based on my first mention in public forums. Also, of all the counters above, some counters I have taken profit, some are still holding, some I have cut loss. My private subscribers would know. 

Saturday, 15 April 2017

(Tradeview 2017) Value Pick No. 7 : Kronologi Asia Bhd. (0176)




Dear fellow readers, 

This is my No. 7 Value Pick for 2017. 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :



Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/


or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com

_____________________________________________________________________________

Value Pick No. 7: Kronologi Asia Berhad (Initial Valuation RM 0.45) 

Following the superb performance of Scope Industries Bhd, which moved from 16 sens to 27 sens in 1 month (68% gain since released of article), there were many request by my readers to focus my writing on more small cap stocks. Let me clarify beforehand, this is not adhering to the request but rather I came across this counter after a friend highlighted the strong growth since their IPO 2 years back. 

Once again, we will give an upfront warning, as this is a small cap stock, this stock has higher risk compared to our other value picks. So for those who have low risk tolerance, you can skip this. 

Kronologi Asia Bhd, is in the business of Data Storage and Recovery Solutions & Technology. In layman terms, Krono provide Data Backup, Consultation, Server Maintenance, Recovery services to companies. Think of them as your office work data archiver / gatekeeper. 




The company consist of a team of IT professionals with substantial experience in their respective fields. From how I look at it, the team running the company is very professional. Just to name a few, the Executive Director / CEO /CTO,  Mr Teo has over 20 years of experience in storage solutions, software programming and network architecture.  Executive Director / Director of Operations, Mr Tan brings with him a wealth of IT experiences having worked for a HK listed IT firm and US based 3Com, both in their Singapore operations. He was also one of the pioneers of a successful regional IT System Integration company, Sandz Solutions. In short, the management of Krono knows what they are doing. 


As Krono is a relatively new company, looking at the 2 years profit trend, Krono has shown steady increase both top and bottomline from RM61 to RM81 million in revenue and RM3 to RM7.4 million in net profit. Profit margin almost doubled from 5% to 9.1%. All indicators point towards continuous growth. However, it is imperative to understand the reason behind the growth. 

Back in August 2016, Krono acquired the  remaining 80% stake in Quantum Storage (India) Pte Ltd for RM26mil. This is one of the key reason for the growth of Krono. With a new subsidiary and board members / management level, Krono has been improving. The key sector for Krono is to tap on the burgeoning data storage and management business in Asia. It is reported that Krono is a long-term partner of US-based Quantum Corp which in turn is a global player in data protection and data management – promoting Quantum products, solutions and branding in South Asia. 


Krono acquisition of Quantum Storage for RM26mil, was satisfied by new shares and RM15.2mil in cash on a staggered payment basis. The acquisition was to capitalise on big data, and India's growth in the sector of data storage. Ex: 4K ultra HD technology, Satellite imagery, CCTV etc. The pivot towards Digital cities, Smart Cities and to boost IT usage in businesses and organisations will help the company grow in the long term. This acquisition comes with a profit after tax guarantee of US$1mil (RM4mil) each year of financial years 2016 and 2017. The RM15.2mil cash portion of the acquisition is being funded from RM6mil of IPO proceeds and a further RM9.2mil from internally generated cash. The company has RM8.7mil in cash as at Dec 31, 2016 with a reducing debt position. Additionally, Krono's balance sheet is relatively strong compared to many other tech stocks out there. It is a net cash company despite having gone through an acquisition. 


We like Krono for many reason. Firstly, it has a change in management / board members which turned the business around. Secondly, it is in a tech sector of growth which is easy to understand and shows actual revenue and profit growth. Thirdly, the company have a good mix of revenue from various geographical location which shows demand in various countries outside of the home country. Hence, we believe the future prospect is intact. We are cautiously optimistic for it to maintain its profitability in the coming QR. If Krono successfully pull it off, there may be a rerating to the stock. 




The 2017 prospects by Krono looks promising as well. Given the management confidence of being able to deliver a positive performance to FY 2017, I think it is worthwhile to consider investing in the company for the long term basis. 


With the latest QR, it is now trading at a narrow band. Since middle of 2015, Krono has fallen from 40+ sens to a low of 10 sens before rebounding to recent high of 39.5 sens. If Krono can maintain their growth, there is no reason it cannot challenge it's historical high. Currently at 35 sens, it is trading at a multiple of 13x. It's NTA stands at 19 sens with ROE of 14.5% for the past years. We believe in the long term growth trajectory of Krono and estimate the coming Q with EPS between 0.7 to 1 sen. Should that happens, the full year EPS will be around 3 sen and applying a multiple of 15x (factor in the net cash position and tech sector), there is a possibility that Krono can move towards 45 sens. For now, this will be the initial TP pending observations of coming quarter results. 



*Please note this is a penny stock with erratic earnings. Hence the risk is higher. For those who do not have such appetite, feel free to skip.
________________________________________________________________________________


Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/


or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com

Food for thought: 


Saturday, 8 April 2017

(Tradeview 2017) - Thank You Boss! Now, What Should I Do With My Bonus?



Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101

Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/

Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/

or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com

_____________________________________________________________________________


Congratulations everyone, it is bonus time! The recent quarterly result season, corporate earnings have rebounded. This led KLCI to be in buoyant mood (aside from Trump effect, rebounding oil price, election etc). Many companies seem to have done better or at least shown improvement compared to the past two results season. Many friends and acquaintances have shared with me that this year, some of them finally got their bonus compared to 2015, where there minimal or none. 




So with much excitement, many of them started planning how to use their bonus. I would like to say it is subjective. Not many intend to use it for the same reason. Majority of them have already been counting down to end of March and waited impatiently to use the bonus to set their plans in motion. Of course, there were some of my friends / acquaintances who knew about Tradeview and approached me for advice. As I thought this was an interesting topic, I would like to share with everyone some of my ideas. 
Do note, one size does not fit all. Everyone is unique. My sharing is merely a simple exchange of insight. Of course, it all comes down a few basic notions such as prudent money management, desire, obligations / responsibilities, needs amongst others. Let me share with all through some simple illustration of how one can use their bonus :


1. Debt Repayment

Surely, using your bonus for this purpose is the least sexy thing to do. Even the title looks boring. However, do not underestimate the importance. Today's society is largely debt fueled due to cheap credit and easy monetary policy across the world. Government relies on debt to grow the economy, building infrastructures, social programmes etc. Ordinary household incur debt through housing / property loan, students through student loan, individuals credit card debt and others. Having extra income from bonus is great, in fact it would be a good avenue to pare down debts as it is never easy to serve the monthly interest outstanding. Should the bonus be used for other purposes, the debt position will never be reduced and forever, one will be financially burden regardless how much they earn. 

2. Savings

Saving for rainy days. This is an age old adage that rings true throughout the course of history. There can never be too much savings. Malaysia is one of the few countries that enjoy relatively high fixed deposit savings rate at around 4%++.  Looking across the causeway, Singapore's savings rate is around1%++ and further on to developed countries like US / UK which also only provides 1%++. The beauty of saving and setting aside extra money is the compound interest that one gets to enjoy every year. There is saying "Compound interest is the 8th Wonder of the World". Example : assuming one saves RM 1000 every year at 4% interest per annum. After 20 years, the savings would amount to a staggering RM 33,160.62. 

3. Investment 

There is a saying that salaryman will never make it rich in life. Of course this is not entirely true. Indeed, Malaysia's cost of living has increased significantly, but as we all know, salary growth has been stagnant / incremental. The limited increased despite the high inflation rate is a sign of our economy not growing fast enough. Of course, depreciation in MYR also affects the purchasing power / value of our money. Therefore, a good way to mitigate is to make investment apart from earning the monthly salary. There are many forms of investment one can consider such as equities market, FOREX, property, unit trust, ETFs, PRS and others. Making the right investment can help overcome the annual inflation rate and eroding MYR value through the positive returns. Of course, investments are risky. Hence, investment should only be done with spare cash / funds. Putting a portion of bonus to investment is wise provided one has the necessary knowledge or property financial adviser to guide.  

4. Education

There is no end to learning. Everyday I am learning something new from different individuals and life experiences. The day one should stop learning is the day our utility runs out. Using bonus / extra income to take up a course to better oneself is the best. They always say, the best investment is education. As long as it is proper education, and you learn something good, then it is a worthwhile investment. Some use their bonus for financial courses, MBA, soft skills training and others. Personal development is very important. So long as you keep improving yourself, you will never be irrelevant. Think of it as a software update like your Iphone / Android. 

5. Necessities of Life

Many people in today's society work to make ends meet. Although B40 category has continued to shrink as the society progress, there are still people out there who live day by day. Many shoulder responsibilities as the sole breadwinner of the family, as a father, mother, son, daughter and so on. Bonus would come in handy in easing the burden of life be it through the mean of buying diapers for a new born baby, medical bills for the elderly, school fees for the children and so forth. Taking into account of all walks of life, it is important to use these funds to sustain the family well being. 



6. Enjoyment of Life

After working hard 365 days, I think it is fair to enjoy what life has to offer. We will never know what happens tomorrow. Hence, it is not wrong to reap the fruits of your labour. Use a portion of your hard earned money to travel to that part of the world you have always dreamt of, or seek the adventure trip you have long for, buy that handbag you have always desired, get a brand new Apple product, upgrade that worn out furniture, buy that brand new facelift car, indulge in the concert that is coming to town, visit the restaurant you have been saving for the special day and many more. You worked hard to earn it, so use your bonus guilt free. 

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Conclusion 

As per most people's employment contract, Bonus is actually discretionary. It is not guaranteed and employers has no legal obligation to give bonus every year. Therefore, bonus would constitute extra income. Given the opportunity, one should appreciate it and not take it for granted as a must. In fact, if your company is still giving out bonus year in year out for the past 3 years (despite the slowing economy), your company is beyond generous. Make the most of it, stretch your dollar / Ringgit by realising opportunities that  would make one's life better. 

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Food for thought: